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The Wagner Group: The Effects of the Rebellion

Written by Ben Kairouz

Edited by Annika Lilja

Photo Credit: Brookings

On June 23, 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, a private military contractor, launched an armed rebellion against the Russian government. In the months leading up to the invasion, there was a growing rift between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his top military commanders. This rift was exacerbated by the Wagner Group rebellion, which saw a group of Russian mercenaries launch an armed uprising against the government. Prigozhin's forces seized control of military facilities in the southern Russian cities of Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh before marching north towards Moscow. Prigozhin was angry with the Russian military's handling of the war in Ukraine, and he believed that Putin was not doing enough to support the Wagner Group.

The rebellion posed a serious threat to Putin's authority, and it led to widespread uncertainty in Russia. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, many have wondered if Vladmir Putin’s power has been put in question; the rebellion had many heads turning, wondering if Putin’s authority could be more fragile than ever. However, this rebellion was short-lived. On June 24, Prigozhin agreed to a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Under the terms of the deal, Prigozhin agreed to withdraw his forces from Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh. Whatever the reason, the end of the rebellion was a major victory for Putin. The rebellion was quickly put down by Russian security forces, but it had a number of lasting consequences. At least thirteen servicemen of the Russian military were killed during the rebellion. On the rebels' side, several Wagner members were reported injured and two military defectors were killed according to Prigozhin.

In the aftermath, there has been a growing number of Russians who are questioning Putin's leadership. It is unlikely that the Wagner Group rebellion will lead to a major change in Russian politics, but it has shown that there is some discontent with Putin's rule, and it is possible that this discontent could grow in the future. As Ukrainian forces are finally constructing their counteroffensive, many believe the leadership struggle in Russia could lead to the breakdown of the nation’s war effort. Even though brief, the armed confrontation on the road to Moscow demonstrated one of the most serious struggles for power in Russia in decades.

The rebellion also had a number of implications for the United States. The United States has been monitoring the Wagner Group for some time and was aware of the growing discontent within the group. The rebellion confirmed the United States' suspicions that the Wagner Group was becoming a liability for the Kremlin and that it could pose a threat to the United States' interests in the region. The United States has been cautious in its response to the rebellion and has not made any public statements about the revolt.

Evelyn N. Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute for International Leadership and a former Pentagon official, believes that, “For the U.S., it’s advantageous in that the Russians are distracted and this will weaken their military effort in Ukraine and make them less likely to continue to instigate new problems in places like Syria.” In 2015, Russia intervened in the Syrian Civil War for a multitude of complex reasons; one was to support the government of Bashar Al-Assad, a heavy opponent of the United States, which led to increased tensions between Russia and the West. As of now, the main concern for the U.S is “making sure that professional military remains in control of all of the nuclear facilities” (Farkas).

The growing leadership struggle in Russia has extended beyond just a military issue; the economy has suffered the consequences of the conflict as well. The ruble has fallen to a 15-month low against the dollar, and there has been a sell-off on the Moscow Exchange. On Friday as rumors of the rebellion began to spread, Moscow’s main IMOEX stock market dropped almost 2.5%. In addition, as Russia is one of the world’s leading grain exporters, any disruption across Rostov or other ports would have major effects on the rest of the world as well; this has led to higher prices for grain in those key markets Russia exports to. According to Maria Shagina, a senior fellow specializing in economic sanctions and strategy with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the rebellion is already “destabilizing” Russia’s economy. Shagina added, “Major banks have raised the rouble-dollar exchange rate; companies’ shares on the Moscow Stock Exchange have fallen slightly; and the price of outbound flights has soared.” The rebellion has led to increased uncertainty about the future of the Russian economy, which has made investors reluctant to invest in the country. It is clear that the rebellion has created a new source of uncertainty for the Russian economy, and it is likely to have a negative impact on growth in the coming months.



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