Written by Rebecca Oxtot
Edited by Eliza Dorton and Annika Lilja
After decades of close economic ties with China, recent years have seen a dramatic shift in U.S. policy. In the 2024 US presidential election, both parties believe that China poses a risk to U.S. economic interests. In an interview with CBS News, Vice President Harris stated about relations with China, “It is about ensuring that we are protecting American interests.” Taking a firmer stance, Trump's administration determined China to be a Currency Manipulator in 2019 (U.S. Department of the Treasury). Both Trump and Biden administrations implemented tariffs on Chinese manufactured goods, yet Trump and Harris’ potential economic policies maintain differing implications for the future of U.S.-China relations.
Trump's proposed policies incorporate broad, sweeping, and strict sanctions against China, including a 60% tariff on all Chinese exports, which he discussed in a Politico interview. While it's difficult to know if this high of a tariff would come to fruition, the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget has projected that it would ultimately produce far less or even lose revenue once changes in trading behavior are accounted for. Furthermore, the proposed Trump Reciprocal Trade Act would grant the president authority to impose tariffs against countries that have tariffs on U.S. goods. Trump has made it clear that China is a primary concern of the act, stating, “If India, China, or any other country hits us with a 100 or 200 percent tariff on American-made goods, we will hit them with the same exact tariff” (China Briefing).
Harris herself has said little about potential tariffs against China. However, a spokesperson for the Harris-Walz campaign, Charles Lutvak, stated that Harris would “employ targeted and strategic tariffs to support American workers, strengthen our economy, and hold our adversaries accountable” (The New York Times). This policy would mirror the usage of tariffs by President Biden, whose current tariff proposition against Chinese-made electric vehicles, batteries, semiconductors, and solar cells has yet to be approved. Biden’s pending tariffs haven’t stopped Trump from accusing him of being too soft on China, telling CNBC in March, “China is right now our boss. They are the boss of the United States, almost like we’re a subsidiary of China, and that’s because the Biden administration has been so weak” (New York Times).
U.S.-China relations stretch far beyond the economy. The relationship between China and Taiwan continues to be a delicate issue, with China staging mock missile strikes against the nation in May (NBC News). The U.S. maintains its defense treaty with Taiwan, and Biden repeatedly affirmed defense for Taiwan throughout his presidency (The Diplomat). In 2022, Harris stated, “We will continue to oppose unilateral changes to the status quo and support Taiwan’s self-defense in accordance with our longstanding policy” (Taiwan News). Harris has given no sign that this policy would change under her presidency.
On the other hand, Trump has demanded that Taiwan pay for U.S. military defense. (AP News). This demand is in line with Trump’s transactional view of foreign policy; the former president has similarly demanded NATO increase its monetary contribution. Unlike Harris, he has not confirmed his willingness to defend Taiwan.
The impact of the presidential election on U.S.-China relations is yet to be seen. Trump’s vocal support for high tariffs has some economists concerned over such a policy's impact, while others view Biden, and potentially Harris, as too soft on China. Cross-strait relations remain strained as Trump calls for Taiwan to pay for U.S. defense, while Harris maintains Biden's policy of support.
Sources:
Briefing, China, and Arendse Huld. “Trump v Harris: How Will the 2024 Presidential Election Outcome Impact US-China Relations?” China Briefing, Aug. 23, 2024. https://www.china-briefing.com/news/2024-us-election-impact-on-china-trump-harris/
Chen, Dean. “Will a Kamala Harris Administration Continue Biden’s Greater Clarity on Taiwan?” The Diplomat, Aug. 6, 2024. https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/will-a-kamala-harris-administration-continue-bidens-greater-clarity-on-taiwan/
“China stages mock missile strikes on Taiwan after island’s new president takes office” NBC News, May 24, 2024. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-stages-mock-missile-strikes-taiwan-drills-day-2-rcna153876
“Donald Trump’s 60% Tariff on Chinese Imports” Committee for Responsible Budget, Apr. 10, 2024. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/donald-trumps-60-tariff-chinese-imports
“Kamala Harris’ record on Taiwan and China offers clues for 2024” Taiwan News, Aug. 13, 2024. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/5918862
Swanson, Ana. “Harris and Trump Embrace Tariffs, Though Their Approaches Differ” New York Times, Aug. 27, 2024. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/27/us/politics/trump-harris-tariffs.html
Tankersley, Jim. “How Biden’s Trade War With China Differs From Trump’s” New York Times, May 14, 2024. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/14/us/politics/biden-trump-china-trade.html
“Transcript: Vice President Kamala Harris on ‘Face the Nation’” CBS News, Sept. 10, 2023. https://www.cbsnhttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/vice-president-kamala-harris-face-the-nation-transcript-09-10-2023/ews.com/news/vice-president-kamala-harris-face-the-nation-transcript-09-10-2023/
“Treasury Designates China as a Currency Manipulator” U.S. Department of the Treasury, Aug. 5, 2019. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm751
“Trump praises Xi but warns China could face heavy tariffs if elected” Politico, Acces. Sep. 3, 2024. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAg99owBB6w
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