Written by Peter Beys
Edited by Rebecca Oxtot and Annika Lilja
On July 13, 2024, at a Trump rally in Butler Pennsylvania, a young man (Thomas Matthew Crooks) was spotted on top of a building 135 meters away from the former president before he opened fire on him in an attempted assassination. The Secret Service at the rally failed to stop the shooter in time or ensure that everyone was safe (AP News). On September 15, 2024, at the former president’s Florida golf course, the Secret Service said they spotted a man identified as Ryan Wesley Routh 400 yards away pointing a rifle at the former president in an attempt to assassinate him (CNN). With more protection than July 13th, the Secret Service effectively protected the president, as no shots were fired. Still, many have argued that Trump deserved even more security through the campaigning period (NY Times/USA Today).
Some Democrats blamed the assassination attempts on Trump’s controversial rhetoric and actions, arguing that Trump’s vows to prosecute his political enemies and participation on January 7th are indications that Trump aims to undermine American democracy. After the assassination attempts, some Democrats asserted that Trump's behavior, on these occasions particularly, alarmed many Americans and sparked the assassination attempts (USA Today). An MSNBC host, for instance, wondered whether Trump “toning down” his rhetoric and actions would have saved him from the attempts. NBC News Lester Holt made a similar connection, asserting that the “assassination attempt[s] come[] amid increasingly fiery rhetoric” from the Trump campaign.
In contrast, some Republicans blamed Democrats for the incidents. Voting records show that both men who tried to assassinate the former president had never been consistently dedicated to either party (AA, Aljazeera). However, to many Republicans, it seems that some Harris supporters and Democratic voters were unbothered by the attempts when, hypocritically, Democrats claim to be the party fighting for democracy and assert that Trump wants to compromise democracy. Trump himself used the assassination incidents to flip the talking point that Trump is undemocratic against Democrats, specifically criticizing anti-Trump rhetoric from the left for “egg[ing] on” political violence against him. USA Today writer Nicole Russel argues that the Democratic claim that Trump poses a threat to American freedom is “overwrought” (USA Today), she also argues that Democrats may not “truly value democracy” because if they did they would “want Trump to be safe for the sake of the democratic process.”
Many Democrats agree that Trump and his supporters tried to use the assassination attempts to attract voters. Trump’s allies have said that divine intervention saved Trump from death in both incidents in an effort to inspire citizens to vote for Trump, with the rationale that god favors Trump to win. For instance, Republican Congressman Steve Scalise states that he thought “the hand of God” saved Trump (Politico). Additionally, Trump used the image of himself raising his fist to supporters at his rally in Butler, right after the first assassination attempt, as an emblem of American bravery to elevate his platform. In order to advance his campaign, he later portrayed himself as a hero and protector of American freedom from corrupt democrats, claiming that “nothing [would] slow [him] down” and that “[he would] never surrender” (CNN) to unethical democrats. As a result of his tactics, some think the assassination attempt was scripted and designed by Trump so that viewers would sympathize with him in hopes of swinging voters in his favor (CNN).
Although Trump won the election and in spite of attempts by Trump and his supporters to use the assassination for his benefit, historical evidence suggests that the assassination attempts most likely didn’t make a significant impact on the results of the election. Typically, instances that one would assume would swing voters, such as gaffes, ads, and debates, don’t. Although one would still probably think that an attempted assassination of a presidential candidate would have had a greater impact, when President Ronald Reagan got shot, the polls showed a favorable swing in voters only temporarily (US News). Like Reagan, Trump only saw a temporary boost in public approval ratings following the first assassination attempt before reverting to what they were before the event (The Times), and he saw no boost following the second assassination attempt (ABC News). The attempts likely riled up Trump’s base supporters and may have encouraged more Republicans to show up to vote, but it's unlikely that the assassination attempts benefited him significantly on November 5th (US News).
Although most Democrats and Republicans have called for unity and a stop to political violence, both parties held the other party’s hostility accountable for the incidents. The parties' reactions to the incidents highlight their belligerence. It's ironic because it’s most likely the aggressive polarization between the parties that has driven political violence. Worse… the attempts themselves have only heightened polarization (CNN and US News).
Sources:
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