Written by Akshar Patel
Edited by Eliza Dorton and Annika Lilja
When Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, the Democratic Party was at its lowest point. Only a few weeks later, when Kamala Harris accepted the nomination for the Democratic ticket on August 23rd at the DNC in Chicago, it may have reached its highest point in the last year. This sudden switch-up has left many ordinary Americans puzzled about how the Democratic Party suddenly switched the direction of the presidential election. A staunch Republican may tell them that Harris is only going through a honeymoon phase, while a die-hard Democrat may opine that, in fact, the enthusiasm for Kamala Harris is real and permanent. The truth, however, is far more nuanced than the two accepted partisan explanations, and it is best explained through the anecdote of those four days in Chicago when the Democratic Party felt like nothing could stop it.
Just minutes after President Biden dropped out of the race on July 21st, he endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the nominee on the 2024 ballot. This caused Democratic momentum to spike significantly, allowing the party to become a serious contender again in polls. It is important to note that much of this momentum came not from a loss in former President Trump’s camp but rather from the revitalized optimism of those who were already Democrats or left-leaning Independents. This fact is evident in the 50 million dollars in donations received by ActBlue, the predominant Democratic political action committee (PAC), only a day after her announcement to run.
On August 6, Kamala Harris continued her dominance over the news cycle with the announcement of her running mate, Tim Walz, on August 7th. Walz, the governor of Minnesota, was promoted by the Harris campaign as a lovable midwestern family man. His policies of free public school lunches and protection to abortion access were lauded by many liberal pundits, although he has also drawn ire from right-wingers for allegedly claiming stolen valor. Still, thanks to strategically targeted advertisements and social media campaigns—like the “brat” meme that has energized Gen Z women voters—Harris and her party managed to completely flip the perceived direction of the election.
This would culminate with the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, from the 19th to the 22nd of August, as the Harris-Walz campaign utilized all of its previous strategies at once. Celebrity endorsements, heavy references to Harris’ planks on abortion and preservation of democracy, appeals to minority and working-class voters, and a copious amount of references to Project 2025, a notorious conservative policy plan from the Heritage Foundation think tank with connections to Trump’s allies, but not the former president himself.
On the first day, the speakers included a mix of Democratic stars, from former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Day two included additional major Democratic figures, from Senator Bernie Sanders to both Michelle and Barack Obama. The next day, Tim Walz delivered a short address to the DNC to rousing applause, former President Bill Clinton endorsed Harris, and celebrities such as Oprah Winfrey and Stevie Wonder gave rambunctious speeches. On the final day, Harris accepted her party’s nomination in a speech, attacking Donald Trump for being, in her words, an “unserious man” who “wants to be an autocrat,” as detailed in a transcript of her speech provided by the Harris campaign. While there were protests outside of the convention over American aid to Israel, the tight security at the convention meant that the protestors did little to disrupt it.
When Harris accepted the nomination, her party had the highest momentum yet. A week later, as the novelty of the Harris-Walz ticket slowly began to wear off in the minds of voters, the playing field started to stabilize again, no less thanks to several victories Trump has gained since the DNC, such as endorsement from major third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the postponing of his sentencing in his hush-money case. According to 538, one of the most preeminent polling aggregators, polls show that the six key swing states this election are all polling on average within the margin of less than a percent. Other models, such as Nate Silver’s forecasts, also forecast a nail-bitingly close election.
From the messaging at the Democratic National Convention, it's clear that the direction the party is headed under Harris is one very different from that of even under Biden—with a heavy emphasis on women’s rights and an even heavier emphasis on opposition to Donald Trump and his allies. While Harris did have a standout debate performance on September 10th, polling largely remained static, as reported by The Hill. Even betting markets like the website polymarket, which are normally solid indicators of which candidate people believe will win, are virtually tied, displaying how neither side has the perceived upper hand as of now. Less than 50 days until Americans head to the polls, this election is shaping to be the closest in over a decade.
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