Written by Eliza Dorton
Edited by Annika Lilja
The fight for the Senate majority falls almost exclusively to the re-election of Democrats. Republicans only need to gain one seat to flip the chamber, and it’s very possible they will do it. Many of the elections remain toss-ups, but some states, like Maryland and Ohio, will likely decide the makeup of the Senate. Here is the gist of some seats that will decide the next couple of years of legislation in the Senate.
Maryland:
Senator Ben Cardin’s retirement means an open Senate seat for Maryland, a strong blue state, which wouldn’t normally be a toss-up. The final draw is between Prince George County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, a Democrat, and former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan. Hogan is a moderate Republican who was popular on both sides of the aisle, but this seat in the Senate will be closer than expected due to Hogan’s last-minute announcement to run. According to a The Hill/DC News Now/Emerson College poll, Alsobrooks is leading in the race.
West Virginia:
With Senator Joe Manchin choosing not to run for re-election, this seat in a red state is up for grabs. Wealthy Republican Governor Jim Justice is essentially confirmed to take the win against Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliot in the deep red state of West Virginia.
Montana:
Incumbent Senator Jon Tester, who is a Democratic farmer from Montana, a solidly red state, is running against Tim Sheehy, a businessman and former Navy SEAL with personal wealth to fund his campaign. In the last two elections, Montana’s electoral votes have fallen to President Trump. The New York Times stated that the Cook Political Report rates this as a toss-up.
Ohio:
In Ohio, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is up for a tough re-election. Ohio is a solidly Republican state, and Brown will be running against Bernie Moreno, a Trump-endorsed candidate. As a prominent and long-time member of the Senate, however, Brown’s voter base is strong and consists of a lot of the working class. According to The Hill poll, Brown is leading Moreno by 3% as of September 19, 2024.
Arizona:
Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is retiring, leaving her seat open to a fight between former candidate for governor and MAGA supporter Kari Lake and Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego. The New York Times reports this race as “leaning towards Democrats,” but it too can decide the makeup of the Senate. During Sinema's term, her vote has historically held a lot of power during major bills due to her switch from the Democratic party to becoming an Independent.
Michigan:
Debbie Stabenow’s seat in Michigan will be vacant for the next term as she is retiring as well. Trump-endorsed candidate Mike Rogers is up against Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin, who is popular among swing voters. This race could go either way, says the New York Times.
Nevada:
Incumbent Democratic senator Jacky Rosen is up against combat veteran Purple Heart winner and Republican Sam Brown. Brown has an exceptional story of surviving a bombing in Afghanistan, which has drawn voters to him. However, while Rosen is not a very well-known member of the Senate, the New York Times reports votes are leaning toward her.
Pennsylvania:
This major swing state has the Democratic incumbent Senator Bob Casey battling it out for re-election against David McCormick, the former chief executive for a major hedge fund. McCormick also ran two years ago in the Republican primary against Mehmet Oz but lost. The NYT polls are pointing towards Casey.
Wisconsin:
Senator Tammy Baldwin, an incumbent Democrat, is fighting to hold her seat against Republican Eric Hovde, who is a banker and businessman. The New York Times reports that this race is leaning Democrat.
Sources:
"Democrats Are Leading the Republicans by Double Digits in Arizona and Nevada Senate Polls." The Economic Times, economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/democrats-are-leading-the-republicans-by-double-digits-in-arizona-and-nevada-senate-polls/articleshow/112933359.cms?from=mdr. Accessed 30 Aug. 2024.
Pathe, Simone. "The 10 Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip in 2024." CNN Politics, www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/politics/senate-race-rankings-august-2024/index.html. Accessed 30 Aug. 2024.
Weisman, Jonathan. "10 Senate Races to Watch in 2024." The New York Times, www.nytimes.com/article/senate-races-2024-election.html. Accessed 30 Aug. 2024.
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