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How Much do Endorsements Impact the Presidential Election? 

Written by Eliza Dorton Edited by Rebecca Oxtot and Annika Lilja


In the age of social media and mega-celebrities, endorsements from major public figures have the potential to impact at least a small pool of voters in any election, especially the presidential election, considering its national scale. Both Vice President Harris and former President Trump have vastly different voter bases. However, there is still a significant number of undecided voters who are targeted by campaigns and endorsements. 


The extent to which celebrity endorsements impact election results has historically been small. Overall, the consensus is that an endorsement will have little effect on the results of a major election. In 2016, for example, the biggest celebrities in pop culture, such as Lady Gaga, Beyoncé, and Rihanna, endorsed Hillary Clinton, who ended up losing the general election. However, CBS and The New York Times report that in 2008, Oprah Winfrey’s support for President Barack Obama in the Democratic Primary helped him secure the party’s nomination with one million voters casting their ballot for Obama directed by Winfrey. Researchers found the difference after analyzing her magazine subscription data, book sales, and the final results of the election. Because Oprah is a Democrat and many people who watched her at the time were also Democrats, she made an impact.  


Only minutes after the 2024 presidential debate between Harris and Trump ended, Taylor Swift took to her Instagram account to endorse Harris in front of her 283 million followers, stating that she would be voting for Harris. Swift highly encouraged her fans to educate themselves and go out and vote rather than tell them directly who to vote for, writing, “If you haven’t already, now is a great time to do your research on the issues at hand and the stances these candidates take on the topics that matter to you the most. As a voter, I make sure to watch and read everything I can about their proposed policies and plans for this country.” The following day, CBS reported that Swift led more than 400,000 people to the vote.org website through the link on her Instagram story, where she suggested people vote early. This could be a game changer for battleground states to include people who wouldn’t normally vote. Swift has involved herself in politics only four times, which may contribute to these statements' impact.


This past summer, actor George Clooney did the opposite of an endorsement. He wrote an opinion article in The New York Times, entitled “ I Love Joe Biden. But We Need a New Nominee,” declaring that he thought President Joe Biden should bow out of the race due to age, stating “the one battle he cannot win is the fight against time. None of us can.” His plea was among the first of many that would come out in the month following the first debate. Biden, of course, didn’t step down because of Clooney’s piece, but it most certainly drew attention to the fact that the president is past his time and that the Democratic party should take action. 


Similarly, endorsements from current and former public officials seem to make the news in a more serious way. The Obamas, who are among the most influential and well-liked political figures, waited several days after Harris’ entry into the race to endorse her as a way to make it hold more gravity when it finally came. Both former Vice President Dick Cheney and former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, prominent “establishment” Republicans, have endorsed Harris as well, leading the pack of Republicans voting blue this November. 


In general, all kinds of endorsements emerge each election year, and they might direct certain voters or parties to move in a certain direction, but they won’t determine the elections altogether. 


 

Sources:


Clooney, George. "I Love Joe Biden. But We Need a New Nominee." The New York Times, www.nytimes.com/2024/07/10/opinion/joe-biden-democratic-nominee.html. Accessed 29 Sept. 2024.


Mitchell, Kirsten. "Do Celebrity Endorsements Make an Impact When It Comes to Elections?" CBS News, www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/celebrity-endorsements-impact-on-elections/. Accessed 29 Sept. 2024.


Ronda Kaysen, Ethan Singer. "Will Taylor Swift Endorsement Actually Affect the Election?" The New York Times, www.nytimes.com/2024/09/12/upshot/taylor-swift-endorsement-harris-election.html. Accessed 29 Sept. 2024.


Stracqualursi, Veronica, and Piper Hudspeth Blackburn. "Dick Cheney Says He's Voting for Harris in November and Trump 'Can Never Be Trusted with Power Again'." CNN Politics, www.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/dick-cheney-kamala-harris-president/index.html. Accessed 29 Sept. 2024.

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