Written by Peter Beys
Edited by Annika Lilja
The ongoing war in Ukraine may have devastating effects on the world, and how the US chooses to participate in the conflict may depend on who wins the upcoming election. The Biden administration placed heavy sanctions on Russia and continues to fund Ukraine's defense efforts. If elected, the Harris administration’s Ukraine policy will likely be the same with the possibility of increasing sanctions on Russia and aid to Ukraine. At the Munich Security Conference in February, Harris guaranteed support for Ukraine: she denounced Russia for its “crimes against humanity,” assured leaders that she would hold Russia accountable for its barbarism, and warned China against helping Russia (Sampson, 2024).
The Argument for Trump's Policies Increasing US Involvement
Experts have a hard time predicting Trump’s Ukraine policy. Some think Trump will expand or preserve US involvement in Ukraine to maintain a ‘tough guy’ persona. John Herbst, a former US Ambassador to Ukraine, said that “Trump perceives himself as a strong man and does not want to be associated with foreign policy failure […] and a Russian victory in Ukraine [under] Trump [as] president would […] look like a foreign policy failure.” Trump may even take a more aggressive stance against Russia than Biden took and than Harris will likely take. The Washington Post, for instance, reported that, during a fundraising event, Trump “suggested that he would have bombed Moscow… if Russia invaded Ukraine.”
The Argument for Trump's Policies Reducing US Involvement
However, though Trump has never publicly said he favors Russia over Ukraine, many experts believe that given his sympathy for Putin, and his oddly close relationship with Russia, Trump may reduce US participation in the war. Trump openly admirers Putin, as on February 22, 2022, days after Russia announced that it would launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and two days before Russia began its invasion, former President Trump called Putin ‘savvy’ and ‘genius,’ and in an interview, Trump said that he “liked” Putin and admired Putin’s “love [for] his country” (Gedeon, 2022). Additionally, Special Counsel Robert Meuller found evidence that Trump’s campaign contacted Russian allies and agents during the 2016 election to give Trump an unfair advantage. Trump, during a May 2023 CNN town hall, said he would not side with Ukraine or commit to continue sending military aid to Ukraine, suggesting his policies may favor Russia.
Furthermore, Trump has had a rocky relationship with Ukraine, making it difficult for him to support Ukraine and easier to support Russia, as approaching the 2020 election, Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate President Biden and Biden’s son, and earlier, Trump had withdrawn military aid to Ukraine, and allegedly the release of the aid was conditional on Ukraine investigating Biden.
If re-elected, Trump has promised to end the conflict in Ukraine. According to the Washington Post, many experts speculate that Trump’s plan to end the war will heavily favor Russia and may include Ukraine ceding large portions of land, and that Trump, to justify his plan, claims he believes that most Ukrainians would not mind being under Russian control.
If Trump is re-elected and chooses not to help Ukraine, Trump would be reversing past US efforts to contain authoritarianism. This decision would set a new precedent, signaling the US tolerates bullying and violations of international law.
Sources:
Arnsdorf, Isaac, et al. "Inside Donald Trump's Secret, Long-shot Plan to End the War in Ukraine." The Washington Post. The Washington Post, www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/05/trump-ukraine-secret-plan/. Accessed 27 July 2024.
Editors at the BBC. "Trump Impeachment: The Short Medium and Long Story." British Broadcasting Corporation. British Broadcasting Corportion, www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49800181. Accessed 27 July 2024.
Gedeon, Joseph. "Trump Calls Putin 'genius' and 'savvy' for Ukraine Invasion." Politico, 23 Feb. 2022, www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923. Accessed 27 July 2024.
Sampson, Eve. "What to Know about Kamala Harris's Foreign Policy Positions." The New York Times, 27 July 2024. The New York Times, www.nytimes.com/2024/07/27/world/kamala-harris-foreign-policy-positions.html. Accessed 27 July 2024.
Vorozhko, Tatiana. "What Would Trump's and Biden's Second-term Policy on Ukraine Look Like?" VOA, 12 June 2024, www.voanews.com/amp/what-would-trump-s-and-biden-s-second-term-policy-on-ukraine-look-like/7653616.html. Accessed 27 July 2024.
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