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Jul 14, 2021
In Political Forum
As we inch closer to the 2022 midterms we are seeing a significant shot at the GOP taking back control of the house. Let first take a look at the history of house elections. As you can see here republican lost 40 seats in 2018. Looking at the current 222- 213 number and looking at recent elections Republicans have been making democrats lose many many seats. Now we look at the seats Republican can likely flip in 2022. To first understand you must understand the polling margin of error and how we can take it to make calculation on polling. As you can see the margin of error can go anywhere from 0.1% - 6% difference. Taking this and looking at polls that come into significant play for Republican here is what we found. Here we see polling with 7 seat flips for the GOP with two of them not being in the margin of error. The GOP only need to flip 6 seats in the house and they are already in steady for a win in two. Seeing the image of the margin of error the chance of a seat flipping in that margin was 3 out of 11 or 27.27% and with 5 says up for grabs it show only 1 would be flip giving the GOP +4 of those seats which added to 2 would be 6. So there you ha e it in order for democrats to maintain their control a way to go it to get 2 of the 5 seats listed below. OK-15 FL-27 IA-01 CA-48 SC-01 Or they need to flip a few of the generic republican territories shown in this image But remember there are 6 democratic seats in the margin of error show below. So there you have it the fundamental 16 seats that need to be fought for and the democrats need to gain 2 seats and keep the rest or flip more republicans seats to makeup up for the loses. But only time will tell in 2022! Credit: fivethirtyeight.com
Republican are on the path to winning back the house and how dems can maintain control. content media
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Apr 14, 2021
In Political Forum
There is a lot of debates about the 2022 Senate elections. And a question that is often asked is will the GOP win back the senate. And the answer is it is more likely than some people may think and let me tell you how! ๐“๐ก๐ž ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฌ First, we must take a look at some map predictions and polls that show the GOP is leading in the 2022 senate election. First, let's look at the consensus map made by 270towin.com which shows a lead for the GOP by 3 seats. In this consensus map, we see 3 states leaning Republican this early on that went democratic in 2020. We are seeing a possible flip for colorado, Arizona, and Georgia being the battleground states. We also see some states that were not part of the 2020 senate election which are pointing at a GOP win Including Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri, and North Dakota. With this information all though yes there are democratic states in 2022 that didn't run in 2020. There were also a lot of democratic states taken off almost evening it out. But there are also polls and predictions showing a close but democratic lead or tie amongst the GOP. ๐’๐š๐›๐š๐ญ๐จ๐ฌ ๐Œ๐š๐ ๐ข๐š๐œ๐š๐ฅ ๐๐š๐ฅ๐ฅ Sabato is one of the most accurate election predictors out there nearly predicting the 2020 presidential election missing by one state (North Carolina). They have made an early prediction about the 2022 senate election map. And according to their map, the only toss-up state will be Pennsylvania. Take a look at their map. In this map, they are saying that Colorado, Arizona, and Georgia will again vote democratic in 2022. But knowing how close Georgia is it is possible for that to go for the GOP as well. But sticking to their map it would seem as if it could be another tie or a lead for the democratic party. The only way in this scenario for the GOP to win control Is if not only they carry Pennsylvania but carry Georgia which is possible knowing how close Georgia was between Jon Ossoff and David Perdue. ๐‚๐จ๐ง๐œ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง So to conclude this article the answer seems to be yes it is possible for the GOP to take control depending on the states they carry. But it is also possible for it to end up in a tie once again like in 2020. So what do you think about what will happen please comment your thought on this post thank you for reading!
Will The GOP win back the senate? content media
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