As we inch closer to the 2022 midterms we are seeing a significant shot at the GOP taking back control of the house. Let first take a look at the history of house elections.
As you can see here republican lost 40 seats in 2018. Looking at the current 222- 213 number and looking at recent elections Republicans have been making democrats lose many many seats. Now we look at the seats Republican can likely flip in 2022. To first understand you must understand the polling margin of error and how we can take it to make calculation on polling.
As you can see the margin of error can go anywhere from 0.1% - 6% difference. Taking this and looking at polls that come into significant play for Republican here is what we found.
Here we see polling with 7 seat flips for the GOP with two of them not being in the margin of error. The GOP only need to flip 6 seats in the house and they are already in steady for a win in two. Seeing the image of the margin of error the chance of a seat flipping in that margin was 3 out of 11 or 27.27% and with 5 says up for grabs it show only 1 would be flip giving the GOP +4 of those seats which added to 2 would be 6. So there you ha e it in order for democrats to maintain their control a way to go it to get 2 of the 5 seats listed below.
Or they need to flip a few of the generic republican territories shown in this image
But remember there are 6 democratic seats in the margin of error show below.
So there you have it the fundamental 16 seats that need to be fought for and the democrats need to gain 2 seats and keep the rest or flip more republicans seats to makeup up for the loses. But only time will tell in 2022!